Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.706876 3.168610 3.681018 4.291235 4.997575 5.788907 6.742175
2025-11-30 2.033692 2.661865 3.434997 4.453785 5.758157 7.369218 9.507095
2025-12-07 1.547760 2.223531 3.129781 4.427760 6.232105 8.643730 12.102678
2025-12-14 1.223022 1.902710 2.883328 4.390447 6.635496 9.840435 14.743504
2025-12-21 1.003409 1.674164 2.705765 4.391550 7.057417 11.084726 17.595385
2025-12-28 0.912667 1.618606 2.766343 4.744162 8.036956 13.258411 22.106250
2026-01-04 0.793209 1.489445 2.681601 4.839793 8.607882 14.855581 25.909193
2026-01-11 0.697302 1.380721 2.608449 4.934471 9.176901 16.504024 29.987497
2026-01-18 0.608317 1.266727 2.504445 4.952110 9.603255 17.948678 33.879697
2026-01-25 0.526700 1.150996 2.376599 4.901307 9.889137 19.167308 37.501825
2026-02-01 0.434897 0.997137 2.149450 4.620999 9.694597 19.472536 39.459915
2026-02-08 0.374276 0.897730 2.014659 4.502333 9.794356 20.333609 42.562113
2026-02-15 0.326238 0.819327 1.915458 4.451879 10.045425 21.559523 46.619517
2026-02-22 0.302621 0.793435 1.927032 4.645078 10.842704 23.996161 53.466246
2026-03-01 0.267452 0.732682 1.849785 4.626590 11.175532 25.509245 58.573368
2026-03-08 0.236186 0.675396 1.770761 4.590643 11.462294 26.956540 63.716114
2026-03-15 0.211259 0.629633 1.711773 4.592826 11.836546 28.639676 69.584331
2026-03-22 0.206987 0.639610 1.794727 4.961247 13.141462 32.588115 81.079830
2026-03-29 0.190562 0.611734 1.774492 5.061196 13.796201 35.100310 89.515795
2026-04-05 0.175813 0.585783 1.755050 5.160060 14.461614 37.715819 98.505038
2026-04-12 0.159671 0.552218 1.708818 5.178487 14.919356 39.877258 106.635399
2026-04-19 0.143006 0.513442 1.641024 5.125469 15.177797 41.569766 113.789481
2026-04-26 0.121241 0.453029 1.498583 4.832892 14.733360 41.405013 116.162823